His presentation was recorded and the video is now available here: https://mediaserveur.u-bourgogne.fr/permalink/v126d382b35af9x8vi1g/
Here is a summary: This study presents the first causal assessment of the impact of early re-orientation on higher education pathways, by comparing the outcomes of students who applied for re-orientation according to the outcome of their allocation. Using a discontinuity regression method, applicants seeking a change of course who were narrowly admitted to a programme are compared with those who were marginally rejected. This approach allows for a comparison of students with similar academic and socio-demographic profiles, and who therefore have the same prospects of success both in their current course and in those listed in their change-of-course applications. The results show that changing course leads to a very clear increase in the likelihood of remaining enrolled in higher education following the allocation of places (+38 percentage points) and of obtaining a higher education qualification (+23 percentage points). These effects are particularly pronounced among students switching to the Higher Technician Programme (STS).
The benefits are less significant when a change of course leads to a field that is too different from, or, conversely, too similar to, the original course of study. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the improved chances of obtaining a degree following a change of course could offset the additional educational costs it generates, suggesting an overall neutral budgetary impact and qualifying the prevailing view in public debate that such a change is costly and ineffective.